From Thursday, April 16 to Saturday, April 18, IMAP held its Spring Conference in Dublin, bringing together more than 100 M&A experts from all over the world. During the conference, IMAP partners held sessions covering the current geopolitical environment, and also shared views on the state of the European M&A market and what dealmakers are doing to once again adapt and continue thriving in the current context. Our partners Aitor Cayero and Francisco Hidalgo-Barquero attended the event in representation of Albia IMAP.
The following contains, in Albia IMAP’s opinion, some key points surrounding the current geopolitical environment and state of M&A in Europe.
A geopolitical environment marked by instability
The global geopolitical environment in early 2026 is characterized by a sharp increase in instability. The decision made by the US administration to wage war with Iran, with no apparent gains for the US at the moment, and moreover, allowing Iran to strengthen its strategic position in the Gulf region, is starting to cause overall havoc in world-wide economy.
Significant disruption across energy and commodity supply chains is looming, with reports pointing to tightening jet fuel availability (6-week reserves left according to International Energy Agency), while declining strategic reserves have raised the risk of supply constraints, with some regions in south-east Asia, already experiencing early-stage fuel rationing dynamics. In response to fuel-based energy production shortages, it seems inevitable that some European countries reevaluate their energy mix, including reconsideration of use of nuclear energy.
Fertilizers, energy and market volatility
At the same time, fertilizer supply chains are emerging as a critical vulnerability, with potential shortages in parts of Africa and Asia posing a tangible risk to global agricultural output if the logistics disruption caused by closing of the straight of Ormuz persist.
Another uncertainty factor during Q1 has been volatility in public equity markets, particularly within the software and broader technology sector, caused by the potential impact of AI on traditional SaaS business models.
How does this environment affect M&A in Europe
For investors, this mix of factors translates into an environment of elevated uncertainty, higher risk premiums, and a growing focus on resilience.
Against this backdrop of geopolitical and market volatility, regarding European M&A activity in Q1 2026, IMAP dealmakers are sensing a shift toward:
- Disciplined capital deployment, with investors prioritizing value-oriented opportunities,
- Focus on companies with strong fundamentals and cash flow visibility,
- Robust cross-border transaction demand remains, driven by strategic investors based in countries with subdued internal growth and industries that have been already consolidated,
- Growing interest in looking to expand inorganically to obtain higher growth abroad and lead buy and build opportunities in fragmented industries.
The role of Private Equity
Private equity firms, with mounting dry powder and the need to deploy, continue to play a central role in the market, with a strong focus on buy-and-build strategies. Sponsors are increasingly scaling platforms through add-on acquisitions targeting fragmentation across mid-market sectors.
Main sectors to expect M&A in 2026
Despite these challenges, several sectors are demonstrating strong resilience and should continue to do so in coming months:
- Food & Beverage
- Healthcare
- Business Services
- Technology
- Logistics
- Defense
A positive beginning of the year for IMAP
It is inevitable that this context of uncertainty makes execution more complex. IMAP dealmakers consistently point to prolonged processes, where they are adapting to the circumstances and being creative to complete transactions, using structuring and experience to bridge valuation gaps between buyers and sellers.
Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the momentum gained in M&A during 2025 continued in 2026 for IMAP, with IMAP advisors closing 58 transactions globally, totaling over USD 4 million. Cross-border remained a core strength for IMAP, which totaled half of completed transactions.
